Optimal-robust selection of a fuel surrogate for homogeneous charge compression ignition modeling.

Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) combustion is a potential candidate for dealing with the stringent regulations on vehicle emissions while still providing very good energy efficiency. Despite the promising results obtained in preliminary studies, the lack of autoignition control has delayed its launch in the engine industry. In the development of the HCCI concept, the availability of reliable computer models has proved extremely valuable, due to their flexibility and lower cost compared with experiments using real engines. In order to obtain the best formulation of a fuel surrogate formulated with n-heptane, toluene and cyclohexane that efficiently estimate the autoignition behaviour, regression adjustments are made to the Root-Mean-Square Errors (RMSE) of experimental Starts of Combustion (SOC) from the modeled SOC. The canonical form of the Scheffé polynomials is widely used to fit the data from mixture experiments, however the experimenter might have only partial knowledge. In this paper we present the adaptation of the robust methodology for possibly misspecified blending model and an algorithm to obtain tailor-made optimal designs for mixture experiments, instead of using standard designs which are indiscriminately employed, to make good estimations of the parameters blending model. We maximize the determinant of the mean squared error matrix of the least square estimator over a realistic neighbourhood of the fitted regression mixture model. The maximized determinant is then minimized over the class of possible designs, yielding an optimal design. Thus, the computed desings are robust to the exact form of the true blending model. Standard mixture designs, as the simplex lattice, are around 25% efficient for estimation purposes compared with the designs obtained in this work when deviances from the considered model occur during the experiments. Once an optimal-robust design was selected (based on the level of certainty about model adequacy), we computed the optimal mixture that best reproduces the combustion property to be imitated. Optimal mixtures obtained when the considered model is inadequate agree with the results achieved in empirical studies, which validates the methodology proposed in this work.

Development and validation of a method to quantify benefits of clean-air taxi legislation.

Air pollution from motor vehicle traffic remains a significant threat to public health. Using taxi inspection and trip data, we assessed changes in New York City's taxi fleet following Clean Air Taxi legislation enacted in 2005-2006. Inspection and trip data between 2004 and 2015 were used to assess changes in New York's taxi fleet and to estimate and spatially apportion annual taxi-related exhaust emissions of nitric oxide (NO) and total particulate matter (PMT). These emissions changes were used to predict reductions in NO and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations estimates using data from the New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS) in 2009-2015. Efficiency trends among other for-hire vehicles and spatial variation in traffic intensity were also considered. The city fuel efficiency of the medallion taxi fleet increased from 15.7 MPG to 33.1 MPG, and corresponding NO and PMT exhaust emissions estimates declined by 82 and 49%, respectively. These emissions reductions were associated with changes in NYCCAS-modeled NO and PM2.5 concentrations (p < 0.001). New York's clean air taxi legislation was effective at increasing fuel efficiency of the medallion taxi fleet, and reductions in estimated taxi emissions were associated with decreases in NO and PM2.5 concentrations.

Solid Particle Number (SPN) Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS) in the European Legislation: A Review.

Portable emissions measurement systems (PEMS) for gaseous pollutants were firstly introduced in the United States regulation to check the in-use compliance of heavy-duty engines, avoiding the high costs of removing the engine and testing it on a dynamometer in the laboratory. In Europe, the in-service conformity of heavy-duty engines has been checked with PEMS for gaseous pollutants since 2014. To strengthen emissions regulations with a view to minimise the differences between on-road and laboratory emission levels in some cases, PEMS testing, including solid particle number (SPN), was introduced for the type-approval of light-duty vehicles in Europe in 2017 and for in-service conformity in 2019. SPN-PEMS for heavy-duty engines will be introduced in 2021. This paper gives an overview of the studies for SPN-PEMS from early 2013 with the first prototypes until the latest testing and improvements in 2019. The first prototype diffusion charger (DC) based systems had high differences from the reference laboratory systems at the first light-duty vehicles campaign. Tightening of the technical requirements and improvements from the instrument manufacturers resulted in differences of around 50%. Similar differences were found in an inter-laboratory comparison exercise with the best performing DC- and CPC- (condensation particle counter) based system. The heavy-duty evaluation phase at a single lab and later at various European laboratories revealed higher differences due to the small size of the urea generated particles and their high charge at elevated temperatures. This issue, along with robustness at low ambient temperatures, was addressed by the instrument manufacturers bringing the measurement uncertainty to the 50% levels. This measurement uncertainty needs to be considered at the on-road emission results measured with PEMS.

Climate change and the surgeon: what is the problem? Why is it so hard? What can be done?

We know very well what causes climate change, and in general terms, what the dangers are. This is a new kind of environmental problem, it is not like taking lead out of petrol, and it is important to understand why responding to climate change is so challenging. But that is no reason to give up: in fact there are many opportunities to intervene, including actions that can be taken by surgeons and other health professionals.

Regulating particle number measurements from the tailpipe of light-duty vehicles: The next step?

Light-duty vehicle emission regulation in the European Union requires the dilution of the whole exhaust in a dilution tunnel with constant volume sampling prior to emission measurements. This methodology avoids measurement uncertainties associated with direct raw exhaust emission measurements from the tailpipe, such as exhaust flow determination, exhaust flow pressure pulsations, differences in the response time between exhaust flow and instrument signals, or their misalignment. Transfer tubes connecting the tailpipe to the dilution tunnel of different lengths, and mixing of the exhaust gas with the dilution air in the dilution tunnel may increase differences in measurements performed at different facilities. Recently, the light-duty vehicle regulation was complemented by on-road measurements with Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS). PEMS measurements are conducted from the vehicle tailpipe. Differences between tailpipe and full dilution tunnel measurements have not been adequately addressed so far. In this study we compare particle number emissions measured at the full dilution tunnel or directly at the tailpipe. The measurements covered solid particles with diameter larger than 23 nm, as required by the current regulation, but also solid particles larger than 10 nm, as recommended for future regulations. The studied vehicle technologies were diesel, gasoline, and compressed natural gas. The differences between tailpipe and dilution tunnel particle number emissions were found to be small (<15%) for both size ranges, with the exception of engine cold start (up to 35% in some cases). Theoretical estimates showed that agglomeration in the transfer line from the vehicle to the dilution tunnel might reduce particle concentrations by up to 17%. Exhaust flow rate determination and time misalignment of exhaust flow and particle concentration signals can introduce uncertainties of ±10% and ±5%, respectively, to the tailpipe measurements. The results suggest that tailpipe sampling is not only possible, but it can additionally give more representative ("real") emissions of the vehicle and should be considered in post Euro 6 regulations.

Does California's Low Carbon Fuel Standards reduce carbon dioxide emissions?

The Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) represents a new policy approach designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by applying standards to all stages of motor fuel production. We use the synthetic control and difference-in-differences econometric methods, and Lasso machine learning to analyze the effect of the LCFS on emissions in California's transportation sector. The three different techniques provide robust evidence that the LCFS reduced carbon dioxide emissions in California's transportation sector by around 10%. Furthermore, our calculations show that improved air quality, due to the application of the LCFS, may have benefited California in the magnitude of hundreds of millions of dollars through an increase in worker's productivity.

Carbon emissions tax policy of urban road traffic and its application in Panjin, China.

How to effectively solve traffic congestion and transportation pollution in urban development is a main research emphasis for transportation management agencies. A carbon emissions tax can affect travelers' generalized costs and will lead to changes in passenger demand, mode choice and traffic flow equilibrium in road networks, which are of significance in green travel and low-carbon transportation management. This paper first established a mesoscopic model to calculate the carbon emissions tax and determined the value of this charge in China, which was based on road traffic flow, vehicle speed, and carbon emissions. Referring to existing research results to calibrate the value of time, this paper modified the traveler's generalized cost function, including the carbon emissions tax, fuel surcharge and travel time cost, which can be used in the travel impedance model with the consideration of the carbon emissions tax. Then, a method for analyzing urban road network traffic flow distribution was put forward, and a joint traffic distribution model was established, which considered the relationship between private cars and taxis. Finally, this paper took the city of Panjin as an example to analyze the road traffic carbon emissions tax's impact. The results illustrated that the carbon emissions tax has a positive effect on road network flow equilibrium and carbon emission reduction. This paper will have good reference value and practical significance for the calculation and implementation of urban traffic carbon emissions taxes in China.

Legal regulations of restrictions of air pollution made by non-road mobile machinery-the case study for Europe: a review.

The high awareness of intensification and frequency of smog phenomenon all over the world in XXI age makes for detailed analyses of the reasons of its formation and prevention. The governments of the developed countries and conscious of real hazards, including many European countries, aim to restrict the emission of harmful gases. In literature, we can find the discussions on the influence of this phenomenon on the health and life of inhabitants of contaminated areas. Some elaborations of prognostic models, descriptions of pollution sources, the manner of their restriction, and the analysis of causal-consecutive correlation are also popular. The influence of pollutions resulting from the operation of vehicles, planes, and the industry are well described. However, every machine and device which is driven with a combustion engine has the effect on the general level of anthropogenic pollutions. These drives are subject of different regulations limiting their emission for service conditions and applications. One of the groups of such machines described in European and American regulations is non-road mobile machinery. The aim of this paper is the presentation of the problem of weak analysis and application of engineering and technological tools for machinery drive emission, despite of many publications on hazards and problems of emission. These machines have the influence on both the increase of global contamination and the machine users. The regulations of the European Union take into consideration the generated hazards and restrict the emission of machine exhaust gases by approval tests-these regulations are continually improved, and the effects of these works are new emission limits in 2019. However, these activities seem to be liberal as opposed to limits of the emission for passenger and goods vehicles where the technological development of the construction is greater and the regulations are the most rigorous. During the analysis of the development of non-road mobile machinery in the correlation with automotive vehicles, we can indicate engineering and technological solutions which are limiting the emission of non-road mobile machinery, but which are not applied. Due to liberal regulations for this group of machinery, the producers do not apply innovative solutions which can be found in road vehicles. The paper presents the synthetic review of existing EU regulations concerning limits of the emission of harmful exhaust gases which are generated by spark-ignition combustion engines of non-road mobile machinery. The authors show the divergences between the limits of the emission of harmful exhaust gases generated by road vehicles and non-road mobile machinery (boats and railway engines are not taken into account). The authors present the directions of the development of the combustion process control and systems limiting the emission of harmful exhaust gases. High innovative automotive industry was indicated as the direction of the development for limiting the influence of the emission on the environment by non-road mobile machinery.

[Children exposure to PM10 on the way to school: Regulatory impact of speed regulation under 30km/h]. / Exposition des enfants aux PM10 sur le chemin de l'école : impact d'une réglementation « zone 30 ¼.

BACKGROUND: In Paris, air pollution is now a persistent environmental problem, especially linked to diesel cars in circulation. Exposure of children to air pollution during the journey from home to school, which takes place during peak hours of traffic, is poorly documented. METHODS: The purpose of this work was to identify spaces less exposed to PM10 pollution. We identified spatial recurrences in the relative distribution of air pollution levels using PM10 geolocated measures taken along a fixed circuit, crossing, among others, a speed regulation zone (<30km/h). Measurements were made eight mornings between 8 and 9 a.m., in April and September 2016 in the 14th district of Paris. We obtained a hierarchical classification of spaces in terms of recurrence of relative levels of PM10 concentration. RESULTS: The cartography of the results revealed that the spaces more exposed to high concentrations were found similarly along main roads, side streets and speed regulation<30km/h) zones. These findings suggest speed regulation is insufficient to reduce individual exposure in city streets. CONCLUSION: Elements linked to the functional aspects of the street (commercial/residential) were apparently as important as traffic speed.

A 3 °C global RCP8.5 emission trajectory cancels benefits of European emission reductions on air quality.

Despite the international agreement to reduce global warming to below 2 °C, the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions submitted for the COP21 would lead to a global temperature rise of about 3 °C. The relative consequences of such a one-degree additional warming have not yet been investigated for regional air quality. Here we found that a + 3 °C global pollutant emission trajectory with respect to pre-industrial climate (reached along the 2040-2069 period under a RCP8.5 scenario) would significantly increase European ozone levels relative to a 2 °C one (reached along the 2028-2057 period under a RCP4.5 scenario). This increase is particularly high over industrial regions, large urban areas, and over Southern Europe and would annihilate the benefits of emission reduction policies. The regional ozone increase mainly stems from the advection of ozone at Europe's boundaries, themselves due to high global methane concentrations associated with the RCP8.5 emission scenario. These results make regional emission regulation, combined with emissions-reduction policies for global methane, of crucial importance.Current national pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions track to a temperature rise of about 3 °C. Here the authors use future projections to show that 3 °C warming under a business as usual scenario would result in large increases in ozone concentrations, off-setting any benefits from mitigation policies.

Efficacy of Recent Emissions Controls on Road Vehicles in Europe and Implications for Public Health.

Road traffic is a major source of urban air pollution responsible for substantial premature mortality. Until recently, attention has focussed primarily on exhaust emissions of particulate matter from traffic as a causal factor. From analysis of air quality measurement data from the UK and France, we demonstrate that road traffic exhaust has a far greater impact on concentrations of nitrogen dioxide than of PM2.5. PM2.5 and carbonaceous particle concentrations have been declining appreciably since 2010/11 due to the use of diesel particle filters, but little change is seen in nitrogen dioxide over the period from 1995 to 2015. It is shown that the effect of NO2 from road traffic upon premature mortality was ten-fold greater than that of PM2.5 even before the widespread use of diesel particle filters, and is now considerably larger. The overwhelming contribution of diesel compared to gasoline-fuelled vehicles to emissions of both PM2.5 and NO2 emphasises the importance of further controls on emissions from diesels.

Assessment of Co-benefits of vehicle emission reduction measures for 2015-2020 in the Pearl River Delta region, China.

Vehicle emissions have become one of the key factors affecting the urban air quality and climate change in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, so it is important to design policies of emission reduction based on quantitative Co-benefits for air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG). Emissions of air pollutants and GHG by 2020 was predicted firstly based on the no-control scenario, and five vehicle emissions reduction scenarios were designed in view of the economy, technology and policy, whose emissions reduction were calculated. Then Co-benefits between air pollutants and GHG were quantitatively analyzed by the methods of coordinate system and cross-elasticity. Results show that the emissions reduction effects and the Co-benefits of different measures vary greatly in 2015-2020. If no control scheme was applied, most air pollutants and GHG would increase substantially by 20-64% by 2020, with the exception of CO, VOC and PM2.5. Different control measures had different reduction effects for single air pollutant and GHG. The worst reduction measure was Eliminating Motorcycles with average reducing rate 0.09% for air pollutants and GHG, while the rate from Updated Emission Standard was 41.74%. Eliminating Yellow-label Vehicle scenario had an obvious reduction effect for every single pollutant in the earlier years, but Co-benefits would descent to zero in later by 2020. From the perspective of emission reductions and co-control effect, Updated Emission Standard scenario was best for reducing air pollutants and GHG substantially (tanα=1.43 and Els=1.77).